Article Summary:
Coffee futures plunged. The sharpest drop in 17 years with arabica down 7.6% and robusta down 10% as rains return to Brazil. Improved weather may boost the 2026 crop, but short-term volatility remains. U.S. imports from Brazil are falling while Vietnam’s shipments surge. Freight costs are easing, yet retail prices stay high. Roasters should plan around unstable prices, diversify origins, and watch Vietnam’s harvest closely.
Brazil Rains Shift Coffee Prices
Coffee futures saw their sharpest drop in 17 years as forecasts of heavy rain in Brazil shifted market sentiment. Arabica prices fell 7.6% and robusta dropped 10%, with weather, tariffs, and shifting global trade patterns adding to the volatility. For roasters, the outlook points to short-term uncertainty but a potentially stronger 2026 harvest on the horizon.
At a Glance
- Arabica futures in New York fell 7.6% to $3.66/lb
- Robusta in London dropped 10% to $4,135/ton
- Rain is arriving in Brazil, but arabica flowering remains uneven
- Conilon (Brazilian robusta) flowering looks strong
- U.S. imports from Brazil are down 18%; Vietnam shipments are up nearly 200%
- Vietnam’s harvest in November could ease robusta suppl
- Freight rates have fallen a third since June, but U.S. retail coffee prices are still up 33%, year over year
- Colombia faces new political strain with the U.S., raising tariff concerns
Why It Matters
Rainfall in Brazil is improving crop prospects, which could set up a stronger 2026 harvest, but arabica flowering in key regions is still patchy. Meanwhile, tariffs are reshaping U.S. buying patterns, freight rates are easing, and Vietnam’s upcoming harvest could help balance robusta supply.
So, What Does It Mean for Roasters?
While freight relief and a stronger 2026 crop outlook could ease long-term pressure, near-term volatility is still the rule. Roasters may want to budget around elevated spot prices and factor in possible shifts in origin availability, especially if tariffs on Brazil or Colombia escalate. Now is a good time to review forward coverage, work with your trader to diversify origins in your lineup where possible and keep an eye on Vietnam’s harvest as a key pressure valve for robusta supply.
Sources: StoneX, Cmdty View, BLS, Freightos
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