This week in macroeconomics, American households noted an increase in income while US manufacturing surveys reported a decline in output. US stocks and indices traded mixed with conflicting views on a potential interest rate hike expressed by Federal Reserve officials ahead of chair Janet Yellen’s news conference Wednesday 9/21. The US dollar and Brazilian real recovered firmly while the Colombian peso devalued in a volatile session. There is little change in coffee fundamentals; speculation on long-term global supply and demand aside, the C market flounders in expectation of further news. Happy Friday.
After stalling out near $1.56/lb, the C market backtracked to the high $1.40s to spend most of the week shuffling its feet in a three-cent range. The week opened with one-cent gap to the downside, which it promptly retraced before settling into fairly tame sessions from Wednesday to Friday. Traders are awaiting more news from origin or currencies to make a more decisive move, and despite today’s US dollar recovery, the C market closed with only a $0.0050 loss. The daily chart above shows little change from last week’s analysis and leaves the market open to continue shaping a second head-and-shoulders formation, albeit with less volatility than the first. The C market will need to test to lower to $1.42 if it is to remake said formation, or brave the $1.56 resistance to redefine an upward move.